The Safe Websites team have put together a guide on the preferred Football Betting Strategies for 2023 – 2025.
A good football betting strategy combines research, discipline, and risk management to maximize profits and minimize losses.
Key Elements of a Good Football Betting Strategy
Research and Analysis
- Understand the Teams: Study team form, player injuries, head-to-head records, and recent performances.
- Consider External Factors: Assess weather conditions, venue, and team motivation (e.g., league standings, relegation battles).
- Analyze Odds: Compare bookmaker odds to identify value bets where the probability of an outcome is underestimated.
Bankroll Management
- Set a Budget: Allocate a fixed amount for betting and never exceed it.
- Bet Sizing: Use a consistent percentage of your bankroll (e.g., 1-5%) for each bet to manage risk.
- Avoid Chasing Losses: Stick to your strategy and avoid emotional decisions to recover losses.
Focus on Value Betting
- Identify Value Bets: Bet only when the odds suggest a higher probability of an outcome than implied by the bookmaker.
- Avoid Low Odds: High-probability outcomes with low odds often offer poor value.
Specialization
- Focus on Specific Leagues or Markets: Gain expertise in one league, team, or betting market (e.g., over/under goals, both teams to score).
- Niche Opportunities: Smaller leagues or markets may offer more favourable odds due to less bookmaker attention.
Use Different Betting Markets
- Explore Alternatives: Beyond match outcomes, consider markets like Asian handicaps, goal scorers, or corners.
- Live Betting: Capitalize on opportunities as the game unfolds, using knowledge of match dynamics.
Discipline and Patience
- Stick to the Strategy: Avoid impulsive bets or straying from your plan.
- Long-Term Perspective: Accept that short-term losses are part of betting and focus on consistent, sustainable profits.
Track Performance
- Record Bets: Keep detailed records of all bets, including stakes, odds, and outcomes.
- Analyze Results: Review your betting history to identify successful patterns and areas for improvement.
Leverage Promotions and Tools
- Use Bonuses: Take advantage of bookmaker promotions, such as free bets and cashback offers.
- Betting Tools: Utilize software for odds comparison, betting calculators, or statistical analysis.
By combining thorough research, careful bankroll management, and a focus on long-term value, a good football betting strategy enhances the chances of consistent success while minimizing risks.
Arbitrage Betting & How it Works
Arbitrage betting is a betting strategy that takes advantage of differences in odds offered by various bookmakers to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. This is achieved by placing bets on all possible outcomes of a match or event in such a way that the total payout is greater than the total amount wagered.
Arbitrage betting, often referred to as arbing, relies on discrepancies in odds between different bookmakers. These discrepancies can occur due to:
Different opinions among bookmakers about the likelihood of outcomes.
Slow updates in odds when market conditions change.
Regional biases, where odds are skewed by local betting patterns.
Example of Arbitrage Betting Strategies
Suppose two bookmakers provide the following odds for a tennis match between Player A and Player B:
- Bookmaker 1:
- Player A wins: 2.10 (implied probability = 47.62%)
- Bookmaker 2:
- Player B wins: 2.10 (implied probability = 47.62%)
To calculate if arbitrage is possible, you use the following formula:
Arbitrage Percentage=(1Odds of Outcome 1)+(1Odds of Outcome 2)\text{Arbitrage Percentage} = \left(\frac{1}{\text{Odds of Outcome 1}}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{\text{Odds of Outcome 2}}\right) \text{Arbitrage Percentage} = \left(\frac{1}{2.10}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{2.10}\right) = 0.4762 + 0.4762 = 0.9524 \, (\text{95.24%})
Since the percentage is less than 100%, there is an arbitrage opportunity.
Placing Bets:
If you have $100 to invest:
- Bet $47.62 on Player A at odds of 2.10.
- Bet $47.62 on Player B at odds of 2.10.
Regardless of the outcome:
- Payout = $47.62 × 2.10 = $100.
- Profit = $100 (payout) – $95.24 (total wager) = $4.76.
Key Considerations in Arbitrage Betting
Fast Execution: Arbitrage opportunities can disappear quickly as bookmakers adjust their odds.
Account Limitations: Bookmakers may limit or ban accounts if they suspect arbitrage activity.
Fees and Conversion Rates: Account for transaction fees, exchange rates, or withdrawal fees that may reduce profitability.
Betting Limits: Some bookmakers impose maximum bet limits that may restrict the potential profit from arbitrage opportunities.
Accuracy: Ensuring calculations are correct is crucial to avoid losses.
Benefits of Arbitrage Betting
- Risk-Free Profit: When executed correctly, it guarantees a profit regardless of the event’s outcome.
- No Need for Predictions: Success relies on finding opportunities, not predicting results.
- Arbitrage betting strategy provides you an opportunity to earn a guaranteed profit on your investment.
- It allows you to win bets in a game even if you are not a great handicapper.
- There is zero risk involved in the betting. Arbitrage betting ensures compensation for you regardless of an event result.
- Bookmakers normally differ on odds for football matches, so there are plenty of opportunities available for arbitrage betting in football.
Challenges of Arbitrage Betting
- Time-Consuming: Requires constant monitoring of odds and fast decision-making.
- Risk of Errors: Miscalculations or incorrect bet placements can lead to losses.
- Market Restrictions: Not all events or markets have arbitrage opportunities.
- In this betting strategy, the profit margin is very low. Normally, you can earn a 2 to 5% profit margin in a match.
- Placing an arbitrage bet can take a lot of time. You will have to put more effort into finding bookmakers with suitable odds.
- Since the profit margin is very low in Arbitrage betting, you may need a large investment to earn a good profit.
- Bookmakers don’t like arbitrage betting strategy, they will either limit or close your betting account for using arbitrage betting.
Arbitrage betting is a disciplined strategy that demands precision, vigilance, and the ability to act quickly, but when done correctly, it offers a consistent and low-risk way to earn profits.
What is a Zero-Risk Betting Strategy?
Zero-risk betting, also referred to as risk-free betting, is a strategy that eliminates the possibility of losing money by leveraging promotions, bonuses, and discrepancies in odds from bookmakers. Unlike typical gambling, this approach focuses on exploiting these opportunities to guarantee a profit or at least break even, regardless of the outcome of the event.
2 Examples of Zero-Risk Betting Strategies
1. Cashback and Money-Back Specials
- How it Works:
- Some bookmakers offer “money-back specials,” where you receive your stake back if a specific event occurs.
- You can hedge your bets to cover all outcomes and still secure a profit.
- Example:
- A bookmaker offers a refund if your horse finishes second in a race.
- Place a bet on the horse to win with the bookmaker.
- Lay the same horse on a betting exchange.
- If the horse finishes second, you receive the refund and profit from the lay bet.
- Risk Level: Low when managed properly.
2. Casino Bonus Exploitation
- How it Works:
- Take advantage of casino welcome bonuses that match your deposit with free credit.
- Use strategies like “low-risk wagering” (betting on low-volatility games like blackjack or certain slot games) to meet wagering requirements while minimizing losses.
- Example:
- A casino offers a 100% deposit match up to £100.
- Deposit £100 and use the free credit on games with high Return to Player (RTP) rates, such as blackjack or video poker.
- Cash-out any remaining balance after meeting the wagering requirements.
- Risk Level: Depends on terms and conditions, but careful play minimizes risk.
Advantages of Zero-Risk Betting
Guaranteed Profits: The strategy ensures that you either profit or break even.
No Gambling Knowledge Needed: Success relies on exploiting opportunities, not predicting outcomes.
Low Risk: Risk is minimal if the strategy is followed precisely.
Challenges of Zero-Risk Betting
Time-Consuming: Identifying and executing opportunities requires diligence and speed.
Account Restrictions: Bookmakers may limit or ban accounts if they suspect bonus abuse or arbitrage activity.
Complexity: Miscalculations or failure to read terms and conditions can lead to losses.
Capital Requirement: Often requires a significant initial bankroll to execute effectively.
Zero-risk betting strategies, when used properly, can provide a steady and reliable way to profit. However, they require precision, attention to detail, and a commitment to following the rules of the bookmakers and exchanges involved.
Price Boost Exploitation
Sometimes bookmakers offer higher odds than usual for a particular football team as a promotion strategy. This is called a price boost. The back odds they are offering can be high as compared to the lay odds on betting exchanges. You can easily use these price boosts to make some profit without any risk. The price boost exploitation strategy works similarly to arbitrage and matched betting, but the price boost makes this more attractive for football gamblers.
The profits you can make from this method can be very small (£1-£3) than other betting strategies, but if you master it and use it every day for betting You could easily make £100 to £150 a week. To understand the price boost exploitation in detail, let’s consider an example given below.
There are some good football betting websites to take a look at for more ideas. Please see the list below:
- Gamblingcommission.gov.uk – The UK Gambling Commission website
- Thefa.com/football-rules-governance/policies/betting-rules – The Football Association Betting Rules
- Thepfa.com/players/union-support/betting – The Professional Football Association Betting Rules
- Inside.fifa.com/legal/integrity/betting-in-football – Inside FIFA Betting Rules
Price Boost Example – let’s suppose, there is a Premier League match between Liverpool and Chelsea, and a bookmaker does a price boost on Liverpool to win at odds of 4.5 instead of 4.0. On the other side, a betting exchange offers a lay odds of 4.0 against Liverpool. You can use this difference of odds to make some profit without any risk.
- Let’s say, you Place a £20 back bet on Liverpool’s win with the bookmaker at 4.5 odds and also place a lay bet (lay £22.50 with £67.50 liability) against Liverpool’s win with the betting exchange at 4.0 odds.
- If Liverpool wins the match, your back bet becomes successful. You earn a total profit of £70 from the bookmaker. You also lose the lay bet at the betting exchange, you need to pay £67.50 liability to the betting exchange. Overall you earn a total profit of £2.50 (£70 – £67.50).
- If Liverpool loses or draws the match, your back bet becomes unsuccessful and you lose your £20 on the bookmaker. On the other side, you win your lay bet on the betting exchange and earn a profit of £22.50. Overall you earn a total profit of £2.50 (£22.50 – £20).
Pros of Price Boost
- Price boost betting is a risk-free betting technique, if you make your calculations accurately.
- It is one of the easiest betting strategies and doesn’t involve any complex calculations.
- If the price boost odds are higher than the lay odds, it can help you earn a big profit.
Cons of Price Boost
- Normally, the profit margin is very low in the Price Boost.
- You may need a large bankroll to earn a good profit
- You need to search for price boost offers from bookmakers, which can be time-consuming.
The Value Betting
Value betting is a great way to exploit the miscalculated odds of a bookmaker for profit. Sometimes bookmakers can make errors while predicting the outcome of the match, and offer low or high odds for a match. Value betting allows you to take advantage of the bookmaker’s wrong prediction. A value bet is a bet that has a higher winning probability than a bookmaker’s odds suggest.
There is a mathematical approach that you can use to determine the value bet. You can use the following formula to determine whether a bet truly offers value or not.
If you calculate the value of a bet and it comes to greater than 1, then it is a value bet and you should place a suitable stake on the bet, but if the value of the bet comes to less than 1, then it is not a value bet, and you should avoid placing the bet.
Example of Value Betting – consider an example of a football match between England and Spain. Let’s say a bookmaker is offering odds of 2.0 for England, which suggests that according to the bookmaker, England has a 50% chance of winning. But if you think that the bookmaker has miscalculated the odds and the actual winning probability of the England is 60%, you can calculate the value of the bet as follows,
In the example, the value of the bet is greater than 1, it is a value bet and you can easily place a bet on England without any risk.
Pros of the Value betting
- Value betting is a less complex strategy as compared to others, and most of gamblers prefer using value betting.
- You don’t need multiple betting accounts to use a value betting strategy.
- This betting strategy doesn’t involve multiple betting.
- It reduces the risk involved in the bet.
Cons of the Value betting
- Value betting doesn’t guarantee a win.
- Mistakes while calculating the actual winning probability can be very costly.
- You need to search for the bookmaker’s mistakes and miscalculated odds to place a value bet, which can be time-consuming. Learn more about football betting with the Football Quick Guide from PaddyPower.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is the most effective betting strategy that can be used in different forms of sports betting, especially in football. This betting technique allows you to create a balance between the risk and the reward in a bet. In football betting, the Kelly criterion technique helps you maximize the potential returns on bets and reduces the risk of losing your entire bankroll.
The Kelly Criterion Formula
The Kelly Criterion formula basically uses the odds value and probabilities to calculate the optimum percentage of our bankroll you can risk in the bet. The Kelly Criterion Formula is given below,
F is the calculated fraction of your bankroll that you can use to place the bet.
B is the decimal odds – 1. For example, if you bet on a team with 3 odds, the B value will be (3 – 1) 2.
P is the probability of winning the bet. For example, a bet with a 50% chance of success has a winning probability of 0.50.
Q is the probability of losing the bet.
Kelly Criterion Example – to understand how the Kelly Criterion formula works, let’s consider an example of a Premier League match. Let’s suppose, you want to bet on a match between Liverpool and Everton. The bookmaker is offering 2.1 odds for Liverpool and 3.2 odds for Everton. You believe that there are 55% (0.55 probability) chance of Liverpool winning, so you decide to bet on Liverpool. You can calculate your risk-free stake value by using the Kelly Criterion formula.
B = 2.1 – 1 = 1.1
P = 0.55
Q = 1 – 0.55 = 0.45
According to the Kelly Criterion formula, you can stake 14.09% of your bankroll on the bet. If you have £100 in your bankroll, you can risk £14.09 on the bet to earn an attractive profit. If the formula returns a negative value, then you should avoid risking your money on the bet.
Pros of the Kelly Criterion
- It helps you to calculate the accurate size of the betting value. It is the easiest way to decide the amount you can risk on a bet.
- It helps you to determine the risk involved in the bet and prevents you from putting your money on a losing team.
- It is an excellent tool for bankroll management if you are a professional gambler.
Cons of the Kelly Criterion
- You need to know the correct probabilities of a bet to calculate your stake value by using this formula.
- You can lose a lot of money if you miscalculate it to some extent.
- The Kelly Criterion formula can sometimes suggest a higher stake for a bet, which can be dangerous to your bankroll.
Revised Article – 20th November 2024